The gold markets have found a lot of support recently, mainly because of various debt issues on both sides of the Atlantic. The reality is that the market is somewhat held hostage by the wheeling and dealing coming out of D.C., and when the debt limit deal is finally agreed upon there will more than likely be a selloff in this commodity. It has sold off every time there is even a hint of an agreement, and rebounded every time there has been a denial of the agreement. Because of that, the market has already shown its hand. We are waiting to have the agreement announced, and then will be buying the selloff.
Showing posts with label Stock. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stock. Show all posts
Sunday, July 24, 2011
Stock Market Correction Coming Dow Jones S&P 500 Nasdaq Indexes Screaming Bull Overbought Pt 1
www.stockmarketfunding.com Stock Market Correction Coming Dow Jones S&P 500 Nasdaq Indexes Screaming Bull Overbought Pt 1 SPX S&P 500 Index Technical Analysis Chart Analysis Index Part 1 Live stock market trading video on trends for the S&P 500. We train hedge fund managers on the “stock…
Crude Oil Analysis for the Week of 07. 25. 2011
Written by Commodities Mansion
Sunday, 24 July 2011 16:28
September Crude Oil futures finished the week at a six-week high, slightly below the psychological $100 level. The late session rally on Friday was driven by demand for crude oil products after a series of events earlier in the week provided solid support.
Among other factors driving crude oil higher was the widening of the discount of WTI crude to Brent crude which increased to nearly $19 per barrel. The movement in this spread lead to strong buying in heating oil and gasoline.
Earlier in the week while crude oil was locked inside its two-week range, Euro Zone leaders approved a second bailout package for Greece. This action sent the Euro sharply higher, pressuring the U.S. Dollar. All Dollar-priced commodities rose on the news including crude oil.
Initially, crude oil was supported by the news that Greece would be given its much needed aid after Euro Zone leaders agreed to give the rescue fund broader powers to prevent contagion. The key to sustaining this plan will be placing more burdens on private debt holders.
Although the rescue plan was approved, Greek bonds are still expected to remain at low speculative grade at best according to the rating services. Therefore the bailout appears to be a short-term solution rather than the longer-term plan that many investors were looking for. By Friday, the euphoria which had been driving the Euro higher along with crude oil prices had subsided as traders focused on whether the rescue package would stop the sovereign debt crisis from spreading throughout Europe.
Also helping to underpin the crude oil market was optimism that a solution would be reached to avoid a U.S. debt default on August 2. At the close of the week the market was trading as if there was going to be a compromise over spending cuts proposed by Republicans while Democrats led by President Obama felt the debt ceiling would be raised. The current proposal calls for $3 trillion in spending cuts over a 10-year period. The Democrats are opposing some of the cuts and feel that an extension of the debt ceiling should be the top priority at this time.
Technically, September Crude Oil took out the recent top at $99.87 without much fanfare. The move through this level took place without any follow-through buying although the strong close still has the market in a position to challenge a major 50% price level at $102.89. On the downside, $95.18 to $94.00 remains a solid support zone.
Beside the friendly price action, the news that professional traders raised their net long crude oil positions by 13, 453 to 182,825 contracts provided a bullish undertone.
Factors Affecting Crude Oil This Week:
• Events over the week-end suggest that the U.S. debt extension debate is going to dominate the crude oil market this week. The news that the Republicans pulled their proposal off the table suggests that politicians are far from solving this potential crisis. Traders could be facing a “risk off” scenario on Monday, driving down risky assets such as commodities and equities. The safe-haven Dollar is expected to gain, putting pressure on crude oil.
• There are still lingering issues regarding the Greece bailout plan that may adversely affect crude oil. Traders are still worried that the short-term nature of the plan will not be enough to stop contagion. This could pressure the Euro while supporting the Dollar. A higher Dollar means lower crude oil prices.
• Wednesday’s supply and demand report is expected to show additional drawdowns in inventory. Traders should be aware that possible supply disruptions in Saudi Arabia and Libya are still major concerns.
• If one removes the U.S. debt ceiling problems from the equation then the supply and demand fundamentals support higher crude oil prices. The widening of the spread of Brent crude over WTI is enough to support higher prices.
Crude Oil Analysis for the Week of 07. 25. 2011, Crude Oil Analysis for the Week of July 25, 2011, Weekly Commodities Update: US Crude Oil
Saturday, July 23, 2011
Stock Market News: Karachi stocks gain 121 points on buying in blue chips
KARACHI: The Karachi stock market closed in the positive zone during the outgoing week on support from institutional interest in selected blue chips on expectations of record earnings announcements and rising local fertilizer, cement and power tariffs.
Analysts said other factors for the positive trend included record exports near $25 billion and current account surplus of $542 million for fiscal year 2011, which contributed towards healthy gains in the market.
The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 100-share index gained 121.25 points or 0.98 percent to close at 12,467.77 points as compared to 12,346.52 points of the previous week.
“Alleviated political tensions after the Sindh governor resumed office and the rejection of the proposal to end aid to Pakistan by the US Congress Panel kept the market in the green zone,” said JS Sec analyst Rabia Tariq. “Activity was witnessed in banking and fertilzier scrips in anticipation of strong corporate results in the upcoming week.”
Key companies are scheduled to announce their quarterly earnings next week, mainly in banking and fertilizer sectors. As a result, scrip specific activities were witnessed in FFBL (up 1.1 percent on weekly basis) and NBP (up 3.4 percent), she said and added that moreover, cement scrips also remained in the limelight with Lucky Cement and Dera Ghazi Khan Cement gaining 3.8 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively owing to expectations of strong earnings and rising retention prices.
Current account registered a surplus of $542 million in FY 2011, its first full year surplus since FY 2004 on increased receipts from exports and worker remittances. On the contrary, large-scale manufacturing data for May reported a contraction of 2.3 percent on yearly basis, led by a significant drop in production of
electric equipment primarily due to increased power outages. Government borrowing too hit a historic high level of Rs 2.9 trillion, up 33 percent owing to higher subsidies and rising current expenditure.
Margin Trading System investment (as of July 21, 2011) stood at Rs 247 million, with average rate standing at 16.55 percent. Foreigners turned net sellers of $22.3 million, while individuals concluded the week as net buyers of $37.4 million.
The turnover went up 82.36 percent to close at 126.25 million shares as compared to 69.23 million shares of the previous week.
“Bullish activity was witnessed in the earnings announcements session at KSE this week with rising volumes after global markets showed strong recovery on Greece rescue agreed by eurozone leaders,” said Arif Habib Investment Ltd Director Ahsan Mehanti. “Record exports near $25 billion and current account surplus of $542 million for fiscal year 2011, institutional interest in selected blue chips on expectations of record earnings announcements, rising local fertilizer, cement and power tariffs played a catalyst role in the positive sentiment at KSE despite concerns over rising government debt and circular debt in Pakistan.” staff report
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